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Lottery tickets

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Time to buy some lottery tickets. But which one to buy? In case you’re wondering, I bought all of them. Thats right: I bought from each lottery exactly one ticket. This resulted in small stack of paper, promising a chance of beautiful (and not so beautiful prizes). What does a lottery ticket mean? How big are the chances of winning? And what tickets should you buy? Here is your chance to find out.

titelfoto

Looks

The value of a lottery ticket is reflected in the design and paper-size. More expensive tickets use more paper and look prettier. In this case the most appealing one is the Half-a-million ticket. This one uses holographic reflecting diamonds; giving the paper the feel of being something more valuable then just paper. Other appealing tickets are 40×1.000.000 but most noticeably the December calendar; which is in the style of an advent calendar. The gallery below are the actual tickets I bought in November.

Jackpots

Suppose I’m a lucky man… The chance of that happening isn’t one to speak of, but my greed and imagination does wish to think it happens. In case all tickets are winning ones, the sum of money would be 1.927.000 euros from Krasloten and 27.5 million from Staatsloterij.

Name Brand Cost Max prize Net/Gross Chance to Win
Klavertje 4 Krasloten 1 25.000 Net 20.48%
7 Klapper Krasloten 1.50 50.000 Net 21.97%
E20 Cash Krasloten 2 2.000 Net 20.64%
Flappen Krassen Krasloten 2 50.000 Net 22.83%
Mega Cash Krasloten 5 100.000 Net 25.20%
100 BMW Krasloten 5 100.000 Net 25.01%
December Kalender Krasloten 5 100.000 Net 50.20%
Half Miljoen Netto Krasloten 10 500.000 Net 29.35%
40 x 1.000.000 Krasloten 10 1.000.000 Gross 25.68%
Staatslot State lottery 15 27.5 million Net ?????

But okey, let’s be realistic. Winning is nice, but that doesn’t make it profitable; is there any chance of gaining some profit?

Calculations

Dutch lottery companies are required to publish the prize-schemes and all associated data to the public. So, what is the chance of winning something that is of higher value than the ticket itself? I call this the “Chance of Profit”. Another valuable number is the “Change of Jackpot”; this is the percentage of winning the jackpot. Since the odds are so small, the more commercial value “Tickets per Jackpot” is added. The state lottery is very obscure about its numbers unfortunately; it does however publish its balance sheet.

Name Tickets Produced Chance of Profit Change of Jackpot Tickets per Jackpot
Klavertje 4 9.840.000 7.98% 0.0000508% 1.968.000
7 Klapper 8.400.000 6.55% 0.000059524% 1.680.000
E20 Cash 5.000.000 8.16% 0.0002% 500.000
Flappen Krassen 3.058.800 11.63% 0.000065851% 1.529.400
Mega Cash 2.000.000 13.60% 0.00015% 666.666
100 BMW 5.000.000 4.01% 0.00004% 2.500.000
December Kalender 2.000.000 12.40% 0.0001% 1.000.000
Half Miljoen Netto 1.576.000 11.75% 0.0001269% 788.000
40 x 1.000.000 15.000.000 5.68% 0.0002667% 357.000
Staatslot* est 3.420.000 8.97% 0.00002924% 3.420.000

* Total number of tickets for the new-years lottery is 34.2 * 100.000. Other complexities such as 1/5th tickets might or might not be part of that number. The chance to win depends on sales. This article uses a sales percentage of 100%.

So, with this knowledge in the back of my head, it’s time to start scratching. Scratch scratch…

Scratchy

Before my thumbs started to bleed I found a guilder (dutch coin) for scratching. In total I won €10 on the half-a-million and a free ticket on a 7-klapper.

Conclusion

A few years ago i dreamt that when I had a lottery, I would massively increase the chance of winning a substantial amount of money. This day has happened with the introduction of the 40 x 1.000.000! This one has the highest chance of passing the magical boundary of becoming a ‘millionaire’. Even though the actual prize is 710.000, it’s still the best chance to win a substantial amount of money.

The most exciting lot to open was the Mega Cash; it has the most numbers to look for and a lot of rows that could contain your winning number. Scratching them open without revealing the prize also increases the tension. For the amount of play value, this is the best one. This one also has the highest percentage of profit.

While the chance to win a lot of money on the 40 x 1.000.000 is high, its also a very dull ticket. There is only one area to scratch open; this reveals a code. Checking this code requires a wait, a recent newspaper or an internet connection. Inside the document with the winning numbers is a short list with just 10 numbers; its easy. The ticket also provides an extra game, which is a cheap knockoff in comparison to winning a million. Given that this is the highest chance to win such an amount its still fair.

The smaller tickets, as the BMW ticket, disappointed. The smaller ones do provide a quick fix, but don’t deliver the tension/price ratio Mega Cash does. The BMW ticket is something you buy if you need a BMW (a 33.325 value); it has limited numbers (half of mega cash) and an extra game. The BMW ticket has the poorest profit chance, and I just don’t like the car.

Disclaimer

Warning: The numbers in this article have been manually taken from the original documents and may contain errors. For any factual numbering, review the krasloten/state lottery website. The state lottery has been contacted about the amount of prizes in their November 2009 lottery, if this mail gets response i’ll change this article accordingly. Dayzers and lotto have been omitted in this test; this only focusses on instant lottery and state lottery.

Sources

The end of bank transcripts in paper…

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Last week I received a letter from my bank. It stated they will stop sending paper transaction transcripts. These receipts are sent out once a month and show all kinds of details on your money.

The contents of their letter is a notice extraordinaire. Not only do they stop sending me my beloved paper, they are also motivating it. Like I am wasting one of natures most valued resources.

And that is where things go wrong.

It’s time to dissect their notice, and give some feedback on the arguments stated.

Argument 1: “500.000 customers notified us that they didn’t need paper transcripts“.

I’ve got a hunch that this is the second time a letter like this is sent; 500.000 customers did not take action on receiving the first letter; their transaction were stopped automatically. Apparently they didn’t mind, but is that a notification to the bank?

Also: why should i care 500.000 other customers did this?

Argument 2: “ING wants to cut down the unnecessary use of paper, because we want to run our business responsibly“.

This is a clean-face, dirty hands argument. They are mistaking ‘unnecessary’ for ‘cost saving’. This has nothing to do with the environment. Some studies show that using paper requires more forestation. At least they are not using recycled paper.

Argument 3: “a printout of transactions displayed on our website is valid in court.”

That’s really nice, i don’t have to keep my paper records anymore for legal purposes. Very good for those who lost their paper transcripts. I’m not their target audience for this argument. I skip this one.

Argument 4: “we work together with a nature preserving organization, please help us”

For tax deduction/legal purposes, ING shoves some money to the side. They give it to a nature protection organization, so they can use it for marketing. Like the “postcode loterij”. At least they are not spending it on hookers and blow.

The meaning of their argument is not clear; are they are trying to make me feel guilty as I’m apparently not helping the environment. This is none of their business.

Argument 5: “You can still choose to receive your beloved paper transcripts if you want it that much.”

So after all hassling, convincing and emotions, it is possible to continue receiving my transcripts. I’m wondering if social pressure for falsely argumented environmental protection will ever convince me to stop choosing for paper transcripts. Hell, I’m just choosing paper transcripts because they send these types of letters (also on paper).

Argument 6: “We provide a tutorial for letting you printing out your bank statements yourself”

This is the last and most mind blowing argument. Instead of sending paper transcripts, you can now print them yourself. From your own printer, coming out of your own pocket! So ING has to do even less for its business. Back in the days, quality of service meant something. (aka; you would go under pulling stunts like this, today banks are immune)

Conclusion

ING is cheapskating; the 4 euro-a-year saved from not sending paper transcripts are not going back to the customer. Instead the customer is persuaded to not wanting to have the statements. Using nature as an excuse is silly.

We will not know what ING is doing for the environment; ING is for the larger part a black box. For maintaining a clean face, their letter fulfills its purpose. The environment is just an excuse for cost savings. The only banks that do care about the environemt are Triodos and ASN.

The letter is signed by Hans Hagenaars.

@Hans; better do something awesome for your customers now. Its not all business that makes the world go round. Better not fuck up how nice the Postbank used to be. We want a higher service level for less money. And ow yeah: treat us like humans.

Note: i’ll scan this piece of shit paper when possible. I guess nobody cares about these arguments.